Boston Bruins 2013-2014: Who is the 7th D ?

The Bruins identity has always been built around a strong defence. This identity is about to have a youthful overhaul. Gone is an ageing Ference, partly because of his age, but also because of the lowering salary cap. But any fan could have seen this coming. Chiarelli likes to re-up his core players before they reach their UFA date. Not re-signing Ference early was the writing on the wall for Ference. Is there a message currently being sent regarding Chiarelli's intentions regarding Seidenberg, on the last year of his contract?

The Bruins currently have four veterans returning...Chara, Seidenberg, Boychuk and McQuaid...each ensured of  a rear guard position. That leaves three youthful candidates...Hamilton, Bartkowski and Krug...for the remaining three spots. That was simple. Not quite. Do you really want a young defenseman still learning his trade to be sitting in the press box as a healthy scratch for more than half the games next year. In 2013 the 7th D was used in 28 games of the 48 game schedule. In 2011-2012 the 7th D played 37 games in the full 82 game schedule. Now I did write an article in 2012 suggesting Hamilton and Krug split the 6th and 7th D position for the coming season but I think both have moved past that point.

One solution may be to use one of the youngsters or maybe a veteran D in a trade to solidify the much discussed 3rd line wing position. But this will probably not happen until after training camp when clubs assess their needs going into the season. After all Bartkowski was a part of the ill-fated Iginla non-trade. But Bartkowski is a "Seidenberg" type D and with Seidenberg an UFA after this year the team may best be served in the long run letting Bartkowski develop with the big club as an eventual replacement for Seidenberg who will turn 33 next off season. Bartkowski paired well with Boychuk in the playoffs this past season and only got better with playing time, gaining Julien's confidence.

The answer may become very clear throughout training camp. Was Krug just a flash-in-the-pan? Will his undersize trump his skating ability in the grind of a regular season. Krug's greatest contribution has been his puck moving mobility on the power play. This is a dimension the Bruins have been sorely missing and just in itself may cement Krug's position with the big club. He pairs very well with McQuaid. Any opposing player taking a run at Krug to try to intimidate him will quickly be challenged by his defence partner. This will give Krug the time and space he requires for his game to be effective. As a third D pairing, Krug and McQuaid works well. However, since this is only words on paper let's indulge in some out-of-the-box thinking. Krug, has demonstrated his excellent skating, an ability to put the puck in the net, and a strong defensive ethic. That sounds like the ideal candidate for a third line winger. I could see Krug playing the wing with Soderberg and Kelly. At 22 he is young enough to make the adjustment. He would still be available to play the point on the power play. And if during a game a defenseman was lost due to injury or penalty, Krug could fall back to play defence. It is much easier to juggle 11 forwards than to have to play with 5 D. I like the idea. Hey Claude...

Not withstanding the aforementioned position change for Krug, that seems to leave Hamilton as the 7th D, spending the majority of his time in the press box as he did during the playoffs when Krug and Bartkowski earned the playing time from Julien. Hamilton did play 42 regular season games last year (out of 48) and as a 19-year-old rookie played well enough. Hamilton is seen as the defenseman with the most upside and the future franchise defenseman. A year in the press box will not do him any good. So the dilemma. Hamilton had to play with Boston last year or return to his junior club. Hamilton may benefit from a year with Providence on the top D pairing. Thus he would get maximum playing time and be the first call-up in case of injury.

So who is the 7th D? Don't be surprised if you see a couple unsigned veterans invited to camp for a try-out, such as Wade Redden. Or perhaps a veteran AHL D, such as Kevan Miller (25 years old) or Mike Moore (28 years old) from Providence (both with credible AHL careers), given the chance to show his worth as a possible trade piece with an occasional start. But don't doubt that if there is a long term injury Hamilton will be quickly returned to the big club. 

Boston Bruins: Xtreme Make-Over Edition – the Defense

It’s that time of year again: the Stanley Cup finals. It has been 1 year since the Bruins won a Cup. Time for change!

 Most of these offseason analyses look at who is a UFA, RFA, or available to trade. So let’s do that and more. Thanks to CapGeek.com for our data. We will break this analysis into three: the goalies; the defense; and, the offense. Last time we decided to sign RFA Rask as our number one and extend Khudobin as our backup. That commits $4 million per year for goalies and leaves Thomas available to trade. Remember this is the Xtreme Make-Over edition. Now: the Defense.

 Good-bye Corvo; good-bye Zanon; and, good-bye Mottau. Nothing worth keeping unless Mottau wants to sign a minor league deal at his current $800,000 for a year as injury back-up.

 The core of the defense has played solid and only Ference at $2.25 million has less than 2 years on his deal. Norris candidate Chara still has 5 years at his $6.9 million salary. His shutdown partner Seidenberg still has 2 years at $3.25 million. Boychuk just got an extension last year so has 3 years left at $3.4 million per.  McQuaid still has 3 years at $1.6 million per.  I’m not advocating any change to this core.

 The only question to resolve is the 6^th defensive position although there really is very little issue. Answer: Hamilton.

 That was easy.  Having been named Ontario Hockey League (OHL) defensemen of the year Hamilton will gain nothing by returning to the junior league. And he can’t be sent to Providence, where prospects go to learn how to lose, so the 6 foot 5 inch offensive-minded rookie will have to learn on-the-job. But I have a plan. To ease Hamilton into the Bruins line-up and an 82 game schedule split duties with Krug as the number 7 defenseman. Both are offensive minded. The Bruins like Krug, giving him a chance to play in a couple of games at the end of last season, where he didn’t look particularly out of place. Splitting games between Krug and Hamilton gives each 41 games, closer to their college and junior game totals, and allows each to have some time to watch the game at this level while practicing consistently with the team.  

 That would commit $20.7 million to 7 defensemen. Keeps the strong core. Infuses some needed youth and offense-minded rookies.

 So in summary Thomas is available to trade and Hamilton / Krug fill the 6^th / 7^th defensive positions. Next we look at the offense.

Boston Bruins: Xtreme Make-Over Edition – the Goalies

It’s that time of year again: the Stanley Cup finals. It has been 1 year since the Bruins won a Cup. Time for change!

 Most of these offseason analyses look at who is a UFA, RFA, or available to trade. So let’s do that and more. Thanks to CapGeek.com for our data. We will break this analysis into three: the goalies; the defense; and, the offense. Remember this is the Xtreme Make-Over edition. First: the Goalies.

 Most talk around the goalie situation revolves around whether Thomas or Rask should be traded. Now, publicly, Bruins’ management insists they want to keep the current tandem. Can’t be done!

 And trading Rask to just stupid. He has great NHL numbers and is ready to be a number one. He is your future and is signable as a RFA. Now I like Khudobin as a back-up to Rask but not as a back-up to Thomas. Thomas would need more rest and Khudobin, although he has good NHL numbers, still needs more experience to take on that workload. Meanwhile a Rask / Khudobin tandem with Rask working the vast majority of games works for me.

 However Rask, a RFA, needs to be signed to a long-term deal, maybe 5 years, at $3 million per year.  Khudobin needs to be extended beyond his current $900, 000 for 1 year; perhaps an addition 2 years at $1 million per. Khudobin’s current deal for the upcoming season is one-way, meaning he will be available to 29 other teams if the Bruins don’t keep him with the big club. Now did Chiarelli make a big mistake here or does he have a plan? A plan to trade Thomas.

 Having a great goalie is key to winning in the NHL playoffs; proven last year with Thomas’ performance and again this year with Quick and Brodeur about to face off. Now here are my other reasons to trade Thomas. Thomas, having the greatest value in trade, will bring the most return. I am in no way diminishing Thomas’ ability in my argument to trade him. Exactly the opposite actually. A traded Thomas may just go out and win a Vezina to prove a point. This is what makes him so valuable to trade even if he only has 1 year left on his contract. Thomas has 1 year at a $3 million salary but a $5 million cap hit.

 The most convincing reason for trading Thomas is in answering the following question: Does Thomas (and his agent) see his future as a back-up making $1 or $2 million over 3 years following his current deal or do they see him as a starter demanding a $5 million per year deal for an additional 3 or 4 years? I think the latter. This precludes being able to resign Rask this year and Thomas next year without tying up too much money in this current tandem. A Rask / Thomas tandem at $8 million per or a Rask / Khudobin tandem for $4 million?

 Now is the time to trade Thomas, maximize the return and use the $4 million in cap room to upgrade elsewhere. What can the Bruins’ get for Thomas? Let’s look at the defense and offense first. Maybe we can make a package deal. Next time we look at the defense.

NHL Realignment: Reading between the ”Ligns”

NHL realignment will be good for Canadian hockey fans. Just read between the lines or should that be “ligns”. The realignment being discussed this week at the NHL meetings in California would shuffle the teams into 4 conferences roughly based on geographical / time-zones.

Conference 1.      Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton, Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, Colorado and Phoenix

Conference 2.      Winnipeg, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Columbus, Minnesota and Dallas

Conference 3.      Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Florida

Conference 4.      Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, New Jersey, Washington and Carolina

The good news for Canadian hockey fans is that the two conferences in the eastern regions would have 7 teams each, compared to the central / west conferences with 8 teams each. Logic would dictate that if there were to be a relocation of a financially troubled franchise or what Mr. Bettman, always looking ahead, has as a longer range plan: expansion.  Mr. Bettman has always wanted to be the biggest, most successful North American professional league. That is his job.

The NHL is already the most international of the North American professional leagues. The NBA has 30 teams, but only one in Canada. The NFL has 32 teams, none in Canada. MLB has 30 teams, only one in Canada. Of the 30 NHL teams, 7 are Canadian.  If the NHL were to expand the best two locations would be Quebec City and a second team in southern Ontario. That would be 32 NHL teams, 9 in Canada.

Quebec would join Montreal in its confernce. The second southern Ontario team would join the other conference (not with the Toronto franchise and stealing their rivalries) to lessen the objection of the Maple Leafs.  Reading between the lines, this proposed realignment acknowledges that the East and Canada, specifically, is the logical point of expansion for the NHL or, at least, a relocation because of current team viability issues. No other location (U.S.) in the east is a viable location for an NHL franchise. Atlanta to Winnipeg has demonstrated Canada’s lust for the game.

Now, whether the realignment happens or not, Mr. Bettman has shown his longer term thinking by his proposal. Just read between the “ligns”.

Boston Bruins: That was Not a Stanley Cup Hangover!

The 2011 Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins started their 2011-1012 season with 3 wins and 7 losses in the month of October. Many have termed this as the inevitable Stanley Cup hangover. Actually this was more like a Stanley Cup Concussion. This was one of the worst starts following a cup win in league history.

In reviewing October’s games I look at it this way. The first game of the season a 2-1 loss to a pretty good Philadelphia Flyers team was excusable with all the banner hype and celebrations. Their second loss, a 1-0 score, against a young Colorado squad that got off to a quick start, again excusable. The 4-2 loss to the powerful San Jose Sharks team can be understood. Sprinkled throughout October, the 3 wins were against divisional rival Toronto Maple Leafs (6-2), last year’s conference finalist Tampa Bay Lightning (4-1) and a shootout win against western conference co-leader Chicago (3-2). That’s 3 losses and 3 wins. A .500 record could be considered a hangover for the defending Stanley Cup champions.

The other four losses in October are what define this as a concussion rather than a hangover. Those 4 losses were against two teams. Boston lost a home and away series to the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina is currently second last in the conference and without those two wins early against the Bruins would be dead last. And worst yet, in a pair of games against Montreal the Bruins came away pointless. That ended the month on the lowest of lows. The “what if” scenario could be: if Boston had split this two series, had a .500 record, won only 2 more games they would currently have 4 more points in their first 18 games. A record of 13 wins and 5 losses would give them 26 points, good enough for first in the North East division, first overall in the Eastern Conference and one point out of 1st overall in the NHL with 2 games in hand as of games played through November 20^th.  Oh, what if, what if.

But back to reality. The Bruins have won 8 straight games in November against Ottawa, Toronto, the Islanders twice, Edmonton, Buffalo, New Jersey, and Columbus. They have out scored their opponents 42-14.  As much as all Bruins fans would like to believe the streak will go on forever let’s stay in reality. The Bruin’s next two games are against bitter divisional rivals. If the Bruins were to split these next two games; if the Bruins were to win just one of the two who would you rather beat:

Montreal on Monday who has already beaten the Bruins twice this year, are coming off a victory over the New York Rangers who themselves were on a 7 game winning streak, with Carey Price recording 2 shutouts in a row, and one point behind the Bruins in the standings,  or

 Buffalo on Wednesday, a team the Bruins have beaten once but is still ahead of the Bruins, leading the division, still sniping in the media following the Lucic / Miller incident and the team many project to unseat the Bruins as division winners this year.

If we can only win one...

Boston Bruins’ Brad Marchand: Hero to Zero?

Stanley Cup Hero and RFA, Brad Marchand, has not signed a new contract with the Boston Bruins with only 2 days left before start of training camp. I have to admit I am a Bruins fan, so I figure if I spend the time to write this article perhaps I will be pleasantly annoyed at my waste of time because Marchand will sign just as soon as I finish writing. I agree there is ‘some madness to my intentions’.

Marchand in 77 regular season games had 21 goals, 20 assists for 41 points; was a plus 25; took 149 shots; and, had a 14.1% scoring percentage. He played with enough skill, grit, and defensive acumen to be promoted from the fourth line to be a regular on the second unit. He proved to be an excellent penalty killer and although he did have a tendency to cross the line he filled an important role as agitator supreme.

Continuing this style of play Marchand had a breakout playoff. Marchand had 11 goals, 8 assists, 19 points. He was a plus 12; took 61 shots; and, had a scoring percent of 18.0%. Marchand was an integral part of the Bruins’ Stanley Cup Championship not only for his offence and defence but also for his aggressive style that seemed to completely throw the Vancouver Canucks off their games. I am sure Daniel Sedin wakes up from his post Stanley Cup nightmares with a sore neck from jerking his head repeatedly. All of this came in his rookie season at 23 years young.

Marchand’s playoff points project through a full season to 36 goals, 26 assists. Perhaps 36 goals is a stretch but a 30 goal season is not out of the question in the near future. However with his current non-contractual status and being represented by Wade Arnott (the same agent as Phil Kessel) Bruins fans cannot help but to think that Brad Marchand’s actual contributions to the Boston Bruins’ defence of the Stanley Cup for the 2011–2012 season may be Zero.

There is speculation Chiarelli is shopping Marchand. I am not surprised or upset by this. Chiarelli is doing his job. Don’t get me wrong, having Marchand back with the Bruins is my first choice. But we are dealing with Arnott here. No one can tell me that Phil Kessel has not once, since June 15 wished he had a different agent. When will Toronto win a Cup? When will Toronto make the playoffs? Marchand may soon have the same regret. Chiarelli cannot give in to unreasonable demands from Arnott. Chiarelli has to manage the big picture. Only by maintaining a reasonable internal equity of players’ salaries can he hope to maintain the majority of these players over the long run. There are other future UFAs and RFAs to consider within the salary cap future. Chiarelli did an excellent job parlaying Kessel into some excellent futures. I am sure he can do the same with a hot commodity like Marchand.

The question for Chiarelli (and fans) is where to get the best deal. The fans and reporters in Toronto are drooling but it would not make sense to do another deal with the Leafs. But before we get into the ‘who to trade with’, let’s think about what the Bruins should expect to get from a Marchand trade. All Bruins fans know the unique skill set of Brad Marchand and so does every General Manager in the NHL. No need to repeat his accomplishments and potential. I would want as a minimum a top five first round draft choice / plus a prospect for Marchand. I know Chiarelli is much better at this than I am and I trust he will maximize this asset.

With Marchand’s ability Boston would be foolish to strengthen any of the other Eastern Conference top ten teams. Also they would not have a top five first round pick. So Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, New York Rangers, Buffalo, Montreal, Carolina, Toronto and New Jersey do not call. Winnipeg, New York Islanders, Florida or Ottawa may have the desired first round pick and recent high level prospects. Each has a ‘but’: Ottawa is in the same division and Marchand will have a long career; Winnipeg is not far away from being very competitive but they will be transferring to the Western Conference next year; Florida and the Islanders management / ownership is too unstable (they may end up flipping Marchand to an Eastern competitor). Winnipeg is the only reasonable trade partner only because they are moving to the West. So it makes sense to trade Marchand to a western team.

In the Western Conference, obviously, Vancouver is not a viable trade partner. As well the other top teams (San Jose, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Nashville, Minnesota) may see Marchand as ‘Sedin kryptonite’ but the Bruins would not want to strengthen a potential Stanley Cup opponent. Of the other teams(Calgary, Edmonton, Colorado, Phoenix, Dallas, St. Louis, Columbus) Vancouver’s North West Division rivals would have the most demand for ‘Sedin kryptonite’ since they have to play the Canucks 6 times during the regular season. As well Colorado, Edmonton, and Calgary will have the most potential to pick in the top 5 next year having finished 30^th, 28^th, and 23^rd respectively last year. These 3 teams meet the Bruins criteria best for supply of high draft choices / prospects and demand for Marchand. As 3 divisional rivals this may also leverage competitive negotiating in favour of the Bruins. Whatever the trade it will probably be for future assets rather than an immediate top six forward.

So if the Bruins cannot sign Marchand and trade him who plays with Bergeron and potentially Seguin on the second line. We would have to see who Chiarelli gets back in the trade. Time for Bruins fans to scour the rosters of the aforementioned 3 teams to discuss some possibilities. Internally Pouliot, Peverley, or perhaps  one of the kids may fill the void.

So it remains to be seen, will Marchand again be a Bruin Hero or become a Bruin Zero in 2011-2012? Before Marchand regretfully lets Arnott lead him out of Boston to a non-contender he may want to think of Kessel. Either way Bruins fans should be confident in Chiarelli doing what is best for the team.  


Update: This article was posted late morning. By late afternoon the same day it was announced Marchand had signed a 2-year, $5 million contract. I am pleasantly annoyed with my 'intentional madness'. Bottom line: Hero to Hero.

2011 Canucks Riot: Step Up to the Mirror

It is time for the citizens of Vancouver and the fans of the Vancouver Canucks to step up to a mirror. Raise your right hand (left hand if you are left handed) to your shoulder. Now give yourself a really good slap! Now that you are conscious let’s talk about the ridiculous response by your politicians and police force regarding the civil unrest known as the 2011 Canucks Riot. Take another look in the mirror and ask who is really to blame. BC is Canada’s left coast, pretty laid-back, easy going and now, known as the riot capital of Canada?

I wouldn’t call myself an activist. Nor do I proclaim to be the smartest card in the deck.  But you have to be as dumb as a hockey puck and emotionally distant as a vandalized store front mannequin to tolerate the ineptitude and blame washing coming out of one of the most beautiful cities in the world. As citizens you should be infuriated. The civic politicians and police force are there to protect you from the anarchy of the streets you call home. But when it is demonstrated they cannot provide that protection nor are willing to step up to the responsibility for their own failures be afraid. Be Very Afraid.  I would be terrified to live in the powder keg of Vancouver, protected by such an incompetent civic leadership and police force. I am not talking about the rank and file officers here. I saw them on the line in riot gear. I respect this profession immensely. There was no leadership here. No commands to action, rather the commands were to inaction. If I am being assaulted I want action. If my city is being assaulted I want action. Failed action is better than complacent failure. I have never heard so much, “it wasn’t our fault”.

I don’t even blame the politicians as much as I do the police leadership. This was not about ill conception or inept planning. This is about decision making in the heat of a riot. And a decision of inaction is not a decision to action. The police were too slow to intervene. The police officials had plenty of time to act and react. There were many action and reaction points prior to the day of the game, but certainly after over 100,000 people showed up before the game police could have scraped the ‘meet and greet’ strategy. Go to Plan B (did they have a Plan B?) Every available officer in BC should have been called onto crowd control sooner. The game lasted 3 hours, time enough to redeploy.  At 14:37 of the First period the situation had worsened, still 2 ½ hours to react. The second goal at 12:13 of the Second period left 1 ½ hours to make decisions. The final critical time came at 17:35 of the Second period leaving well over 1 hour before total mayhem. If I call 911 I want better response time than 1 hour. Were these civic and police officials not watching the game? At this point it was Game over.

What really makes no sense to me is the prideful quote from police chief, Chief Jim Chu. Following the riot Chief Chu on more than one occasion has proudly stated that compared to the 1994 riot, although the damage was relatively the same, it took “half the time to quell the riot”. Proudly? Thanks to some data from the CBC and the Globe and Mail let’s compare before commenting on Chief Chu ridiculous and misplaced pride logic.

 Data                                                       2011                                       1994

Estimated cost	$1.3 million	$1.1 million
Crowd / Rioters	100,000 people	70,000 people
Police Presence	446 to 928 officers	540 officers
Injured	140 people	200 people
Arrests	100 idiots	150 idiots
Most Severe Incident	4 stabbings	1 hit by rubber bullet
Length of Riot	3 hours	6 hours

thanks to CBC and the Globe and Mail

True, the estimated property damage cost was approximately the same and the 2011 riot was considered under control in 3 hours compared to the 1994 period of rioting of 6 hours. Chief Chu, do the math. How can you be proud of this? What you are saying is: we as a police force were so incompetent in our response to this situation that we allowed the same amount of damage to happen in 3 hours that took 6 hours to commit in the past. This to me says the 2011 riot was allowed to be twice as intense as the 1994 riot. How can you be Proud of this level of failure? If and only if you were able to say the damage was less than half, that is, less than $500,000 you would have an argument of which to be proud. Here is my premise: A riot in downtown Vancouver will cause approximately $1.2 million dollars in damage (my assumption is that in 1994 after 6 hours everything worth destroying or looting was). After 6 hours of looting and destroying, as an anarchist, I have had enough. I am tired. I have sobered up. I am going home. Anarchists don’t work 8 hour days. The pride factor here goes to the anarchists. They were able to accomplish the same level of destruction and looting in half the time with fewer arrests. They, as anarchists, were able to entice 30,000 more people to participate this time than in 1994. Further to their anarchistic pride it took almost twice the number of police officers to quell the riot. They were able to intensify the severity of injury (4 stabbings) while reducing the overall injuries to participants. Chief Chu Step Up to the Mirror! Open your eyes. Is that the face of Pride? If you do not think so, it is time to resign. If you think it is, it is time you were fired.

I don’t even want to get into the lack of justice so far because it is so frustrating.  The ‘better to do it right than do it in a hurry’ mantra coming from police. They still don’t get it. The people want action. Action on the night of the riot and action in the courts now. One individual, caught on tape, was seen by the world in real time lighting a police car on fire. He has turned himself in. What are you waiting for? What further evidence do you need? What other charges could be more damning. He torched a police car! Put him in prison! Make him pay for the damages! Make him Step Up to the Mirror!

Civic officials have blamed this incident on a small number (maybe 100 anarchists) intent on rioting from the beginning, win or lose. So don’t try now to blame the NHL and the Canucks’ organization. Is it a coincidence that 100 rioters were arrested? Does that mean you got all the anarchists? Mayor Greg Robertson was quoted as saying,” rioters came with a plan”. Obviously a better plan than the police and civic officials. I am sure these civic and police officials by nature of being civic organizations had more opportunities to meet and plan for all eventualities for this misconceived event. More planning meetings I am sure than the alleged anarchists. By definition anarchists don’t organize, meet or plan. Anarchy only succeeds when there is no structure and authority to oppose it. It wasn’t even the first time they had a riot after a hockey game gone bad. The previous time was the 1994 final loss to New York. A strange coincident that recently the civic officials of New York were criticized for over-planning for the worst from Hurricane Irene. Good for them. Better to take criticism for over protecting your citizens. Mr. Mayor Step Up to the Mirror!  Next election Vancouver you need to elect a new mayor if he refuses to do the right thing and resign now. Perhaps a public demonstration would be appropriate to express your displeasure, but remember you will have to police yourselves, so keep it peaceful.